Diplomacy of the 44th President

China closes Tiananmen Square, June 4th marks 20th anniversary

admin — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 18:34:21 +0000

The Chinese state has closed Tiananmen Square just before the twentieth anniversary of the protests and subsequent massacre of civilians by the Chinese military.

China has a ban on public assemblies and discussions of the Tiananmen incident. Citizens have been gathering on social networking sites like Facebook and Twitter to discuss and remember this flashpoint in recent Chinese history.

But the government has shut down access to these Web sites and others, 111 in total, in the week leading up to June 4. CNN has also been blacked out.

Tiananmen Square has been cordoned off by metal fences and is being patrolled by plainclothes police.

On April 14, 1989, 100,000 people gathered in the square to mourn the death of the pro-democracy General Secretary of the Communist Party, Hu Yaobang. People at the protests expressed frustration with authoritarianism and talked about democratic reforms.

On June 4, the PRC military moved lines of troops and tanks into the square and attacked the nonviolent protesters. It his hard to know the scale of the massacre, but it’s estimated that a few thousand died and several more thousand were wounded.

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Obama reaching out to Muslim world, speaking in Egypt Thursday

admin — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 18:01:55 +0000

Photo by gloria_euyoque

In attempt to mend relations with the Muslim world, President Obama is going to Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

Obama is attempting to change the tone of confrontation with the Arab world that characterized the Bush years. The President is expected to give a major speech in Egypt where he will call for a common mission between the U.S. and the Arab world. The focus of this mission is expected to be some sort of justice for the Palestinian people.

The news coverage in Egypt leading up to Obama’s visit has been positive and optimistic, but some worry that Obama will give a free pass to the Egyptian government’s repression of dissidents.

One time Egyptian presidential reformist candidate Ayman Nour was released from prison several months ago. He believes that his release was a diplomatic show to appease the U.S. Nour, who was attacked by a flamethrower on a street corner, accuses the government of being responsible for the attack.

Obama is expected to downplay the push for democratic reform in Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamic political opposition group in Egypt, warns that the U.S. could face political blowback if it doesn’t address authoritarianism and democratic reform.

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Russia, India and China ready for conventional warfare

admin — Sat, 30 May 2009 23:50:23 +0000

The status quo in Washington is that conventional warfare is long-obsolete, but these three nations don’t agree.

U.S. policy makers and security experts believe that technology has changed the way warfare takes place. While World War II involved battalions of troops, strategic movements of tanks and artillery, these are seen as things of the past.

During the Cold War, it was thought that if war broke out between the U.S. and Soviet Union, it would be a nuclear holocaust. There would be no war with troop invasions, just a series of missile launches.

For much of the 20th century, war for the U.S. was guerrilla war, going into a difficult environment and relying heavily on the air force and small groups of troops. Now technology has accelerated, and very few troops with sophisticated technology are relied upon to get the job done. Unmanned drones carry out some of the bombing.

But Russia, India and China rely on large land armies to maintain power. All three have continued to expand conventional forces (India recently bought 300 tanks from Russia).

Perhaps the different mentalities come from the fact that the U.S. military is spread all around the globe. Much of the world criticizes the U.S. for being the world’s policeman. These three nations are focused on their immediate surroundings, and perhaps they are concerned with nearby potential threats. Of course, they also don’t have the “Star Wars” technology that the U.S. has invested so heavily in.

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“Year of India” in Russia

admin — Sat, 30 May 2009 05:30:03 +0000

Photo by Ed Yourdon

Two of the larger nations in Eurasia appear to be showcasing some kind of a relationship.

In 2005, then Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh agreed to celebrate the coming together of the nations with a “Year of Russia,” which took place in India in 2008, and a “Year of India” in Russia in 2009.

The “Year” consists of exhibitions, concerts, conferences, trade fairs and scientific workshops.

This relationship is something to take into account for a U.S. that tries to find its international footing in Asia. Russia and India have been close since the days of the Soviet Union. Thanks to India’s geographical location, it isn’t uncomfortably close for Russia (like China is).

Russia provides the vast majority of India’s military equipment. In the Soviet days, this meant Russian technology going to India. But now both sides are working together with joint research and development contracts. In 2007, India and Russia staged joint naval and air force exercises.

If Pakistan brakes down further and instability creeps east of Islamabad, India would almost have to take military action. The question is, could India and the U.S. work together under this scenario?

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Obama pushes Israeli-Palestinian peace process

admin — Sat, 30 May 2009 02:47:06 +0000

The President met with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas at the White House Thursday, and expressed confidence that the peace process could be moved forward.

The last time that seemingly real steps were made was in the mid to late 90s during Bill Clinton’s presidency. On September 13, 1993, Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin shook hands with Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat.

A powerful symbolic moment, the deal made on that day lead to Israel withdrawing from occupied territory in 1994. But Rabin was assassinated by a Jewish extremist in November of 1995.

Peace talks stalled under Benjamin Netanyahu, the next prime minister, and then Ehud Barak. The 2000 Camp David Summit was intended to reach a final settlement between Israel and Palestine, but Arafat and Barak did not come to an agreement.

Obama indicated that the process had been left to drift under the Bush administration, leading to increased resentment between Israelis and Palestinians.

While Obama wants to make progress, there are a few roadblocks in sight. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is reluctant to stop building Israeli settlements on Palestinian land, and he’s not on board with a two state solution.

At the same time, Palestinian leadership under Abbas has lowered its demands from the times of Arafat. Of course, Abbas doesn’t represent Hamas, the organization in political control of the Gaza strip, which does have more stringent demands. Right now, Abbas seems most interested in having Israel withdraw from occupied territories.

“I believe that if the Israelis would withdraw from all occupied Palestinian, Syrian, and Lebanese land, the Arab world will be ready to have normal relationships with the state of Israel.”

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North Korea threatens the South, says truce is over

admin — Wed, 27 May 2009 18:07:04 +0000

A North Korean military parade

North Korea announced that it would attack South Korea if its ships are searched for weapons of mass destruction.

The North also announced that its truce with the South is over. The two sides have been under cease-fire since the Korean War and are technically still at war.

The Demilitarized Zone was set up in 1953 as a barrier between the two nations. Despite its name, it’s the part of the world with the highest concentration of troops.

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, as the North calls itself, has made numerous threats in the past. But the U.S. has indicated that the DPRK’s new threats are more belligerent than normal.

A South Korean defense analyst says the threats are “very normal language” for the North.While the South takes the North’s threats seriously, there are doubts about the North’s true willingness to instigate a large-scale conflict.

Clearly North Korea is looking for some sort of reaction. But what reaction? The DPRK is already under intense sanctions and doesn’t appear to care about changing that. And it seems to only be alienating the few allies it could look to for aid.

Has the DPRK’s leadership brainwashed itself? Is it ready to really strike out in a self-destructive war against the South? Or is the North just trying to show off its power to tell the rest of the world to stay away?

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Iran challenges Obama to debate, nuclear issue “closed”

admin — Wed, 27 May 2009 17:16:58 +0000

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wants to go one-on-one with President Obama.

Ahmadinejad said Monday that he wants to talk to Obama at the U.N. providing he is reelected president in a few weeks.

In the same stroke, Ahmadinejad said that Iran will not stop enriching uranium in exchange for reducing economic sanctions. He said the nuclear issue “is closed.”

There is speculation that the Iranian president is making a show of diplomacy to swing voters his way. Ahmadinejad and several other candidates are in the midst of a campaign leading up to a June 12 vote.

Iran has been criticized for its pursuit of nuclear technology. Israel, convinced that Iran wants nuclear weapons, has considered bombing Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities.

Former President Bush aligned Iran with North Korea in his “Axis of Evil” speech, but Ahmadinejad denounced Pyongyang’s nuclear test Monday.

Iran basically opposes nuclear weapons and favors international efforts for global de-nuclearization.

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North Korea conducts nuclear test

admin — Tue, 26 May 2009 03:11:01 +0000

Photo by yeowatzup

North Korea has tested another nuclear weapon, its second underground nuclear test, according to its state news agency.

The state released a celebration video commemorating the successful test.

The nation tested its first weapon in 2006, when it was acknowledged as a nuclear power. The U.N. has condemned the demonstration, and several nations including Britain, France and Russia are expected to propose new sanctions.

Even China, which has stood by Pyongyang in the past, “resolutely opposed” the test. Russia, which borders North Korea, said the test was a threat to regional stability.

The question now is, what can the international community do about North Korea?

So far, the only answer has been sanctions, a move that some argue punishes civilians for the actions of their government. North Korea’s willingness to use nuclear weapons, and the unknown state of their arsenal, means it will be difficult to push Pyongyang.

According to analysts, the U.S. has little leverage to influence North Korea. It may be up to China to convince Pyongyang that it can’t afford to use its nuclear weapons.

A timeline of nuclear North Korea.

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Israel says Venezuela is selling uranium to Iran - any evidence?

admin — Tue, 26 May 2009 01:51:33 +0000

According to a secret report by the Israeli government, Venezuela and Bolivia are trading uranium with Iran.

Though the report has been called “secret,” it has been given to the Associated Press and turned into a widely distributed news story.

But the AP hasn’t released the report, and it is difficult to verify the accusations. Venezuela and Bolivia made no immediate comment.

There is a diplomatic history behind the report: both Venezuela and Bolivia cut diplomatic ties with Israel after its most recent offensive in Gaza. At the same time, both South American nations have strengthened ties with Iran, all three united by opposition to U.S. policy.

The accusation would be possible from a resource standpoint: Venezuela has 50,000 tons of untapped uranium reserves.

Israel also claimed that Hezbollah, a Shiite militia with Iranian ties, has set up cells in South America.

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Pakistan begins “most important phase” of battle with Taliban

admin — Sat, 23 May 2009 14:15:13 +0000

The Pakistani military has entered the largest city in the Taliban-controlled district of Swat, the state reports.

Pakistan allowed the Taliban to control the northern province of Swat in exchange for a peace treaty. The Taliban agreed to stop fighting if Pakistan allowed the Taliban to control Swat and impose sharia law.

After the Taliban broke the deal by invading one province south, Buner, fighting has restarted and escalated in intensity.

The state’s military is now attacking Taliban militants in the stronghold at the city of Mingora in a an operation called “the clearance of Mingora.”

Tens of thousands of civilians fled the city in anticipation of the battle. According to the U.N., 1.7 million people have fled the northwest of Pakistan. The U.N. calls it the worst refugee situation since the Rwandan genocide of 1994.

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